Vermont Long Term Occupational Projections |
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2020 - 2030 |
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Methodology & Technical
Notes |
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Long
Term Occupational Projections use the 2020-2030 Long Term Industry
Projections and Vermont May 2020 Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
data to project employment levels for nearly 500 occupations in Vermont in
2030. The process takes into account expected rates of change in relative
demand for occupations over time within each industry as well as rates at
which workers leave an occupation. The results provide a general guide for
the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not
intended to indicate absolute levels of employment in an occupation. |
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Long
term projections are designed to assist the educational community, workforce
development specialists, and individuals planning for the future. They can be
used to identify occupations that will show stability, growth, and good
incomes over the long run. The methods used to produce long term projections
ignore the peaks and valleys of business cycles and focus on the fundamental
elements that affect the demand for a particular occupation. But because they
measure from the lowest employment year in recent memory, many occupations
show large increases as the economy continues to rebound. Other occupations
are affected by adaptations to the pandemic such as teleworking,
technological change, shifts in demand for one occupation over another, and
relative investments in capital versus labor. |
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The
Projections methodology was updated in 2018 to more accurately capture the
way workers change jobs over the course of their careers. Workers once
entered the labor force at a young age, working until retirement in the same
occupation. New, younger workers would replace them once they retired.
Workers today are more likely to work
in a number of occupations during their lifetimes. The current methodology
accounts for this workforce trend, capturing reasons workers leave an
occupation other than retirement, such as changing careers, being promoted
into management, or completing a retraining program. |
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Occupations
included in projections are necessarily only jobs that already exist in
sufficient numbers to be coded and counted. In other words, jobs that do not
yet exist or are just emerging cannot be projected. It is partly through
collecting new job titles and duties from employers for the data used in
projections that new occupations are identified for inclusion. Any past
projections become outdated when actual employment catches up with them or
new projections are released, and are no longer an accurate representation of
the workforce. |
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